25 December 2012, 15:27

New forecast for global warming

New forecast for global warming

In its annual forecast for next year, the UK’s Met Office predicts that global temperatures are forecast to be 0.57C above the long-term average next year, making 2013 one of the warmest years on record. This means that the next few decades may see a spate of catastrophic changes take place on Earth, something that some experts say will be caused by a cold spell-turned-new glacial age rather than global warming. They argue that the cold snap may begin already in 2014.

The history of humanity saw many examples of extreme weather events ranging from severe frosts to heat waves. As for modern-day weather forecasting, it will never be completely accurate and the margin for error increases as predictions become longer term, experts say.

In Moscow, Andrei Shmakin, of the Institute of Geography of the Russian Academy of Sciences, says that the next few years will see global warming gather strength.

"In everyday life, these changes will be imperceptible to most people," Shmakin says, referring to statistics that help discover a trend related to global warming. "In any case, a warmer global average temperature does not necessarily mean that every region of the world will get hotter in the future," he concludes.

In the past few decades, man-made impact on the Earth’s atmosphere has changed the periodicity period pertaining to cold snaps and warm spells, says Vladimir Chuprov, from Greenpeace Russia.

"Extreme weather events rate is currently on the rise because man-made activity led to an imbalance," Chuprov says. "In this regard, global warming can be seen as just an indicator of this imbalance. A global average temperature is also on the increase, a process that I regret to say is the irreversible one."

According to a World Bank report released last month, the global average temperature will rise by 4 degrees before the beginning of next century, something that will be fraught with unpredictable consequences that the report said “people may not be able to adapt to.” In this connection, experts underline the necessity of mapping out a new effective program to replace the outdated Kyoto Protocol. Additionally, efforts are needed to develop the “green energy”, stop barbaric deforestation and modernize the sewage treatment system. Experts say that showing a reasonable and energetic approach to resolving these problems may finally help avoid extreme weather events in the future.

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