The Voice of Russia’s scrutiny of the latest poll results from Gallup, Rasmussen, Reports and Reuters/IPSOS suggests the following outcome of the American presidential elections to be held next Tuesday: Barack Obama will win about 55% of the vote, and his challenger Mitt Romney, 45%.
According to the polls taken by Latinobarometro in 18 Latin American countries, 70% of Latin Americans believe in Barack Obama's victory at the upcoming presidential elections in the USA.
In the Dominican Republic about the same proportion of people support Obama. It can be explained by the fact that the population favors the Democrats, not the Republicans, despite the fact many of the US military interventions in the Latin America have happened during the Democratic rule (Dominican Republic – in 1916 under President Wilson, Cuba – in 1961 under President Kennedy, Santo Domingo – in 1965 under President Johnson, all of them were Democrats). In addition, Latin America has been absent from the US government's political agenda for the past four years.
In 1987 I had a chance to take part in a meeting with politicians, political scientists, historians, sociologists and mass media that took place in Cadiz. At that meeting Luis Maria Aguirre from Catalonia gave a lecture entitled “Election campaign forecasts: the art of the possible and an impossible pursuit”. In that lecture he voiced his idea that when objective conditions clash with subjective wishes of the followers, honest analysts are considered to be the worst enemies. In the opposite case, they would be considered as the brightest minds of their time.
The history of political activity in the Dominican Republic has numerously confirmed that vital truth.
During a recent trip with two respected academicians and politicians and one prominent businessman, I voiced my opinion that the result of the current elections in the USA remained a mystery. I said that despite the fact that at the moment (it was in late September) the Democratic candidate had some advantages, one had to take into account the pressure of the Republican political machine and the prestige of the Republican candidate in the area of successful leadership of enterprises in crisis times. The fact that Obama represents the official government of a country that is undergoing a crisis, as well as the fact that his foreign policy is colorless compared to the past foreign policy positions of the USA, could work against him. None of my companions agreed with me due to their social-democratic convictions.
The weeks that followed brought the rise of the Republican candidate and an increase in his ratings. Romney's slogan “I will bring the USA the necessary changes” managed to convince a part of the voters who had gotten tired of listening to speeches and figures for four years that did not solve the basic problem, the problem of unemployment.
The balance of the elections does not change fast; millions of voters who are faithful to either party have already voted. At the moment the candidates' chances are about the same with a minimal advantage on Romney's side. But there are a lot of voters who have not made the choice. The result of the elections will in the end depend on those people.