What's next for Syria and the world? Scenarios assessed
Interview with Geidar Dzhemal – Chairman of Islamic Council of Russia.
Russia has its own position, its own opinion about the problem and this is not just a practical necessity to keep its presence in the region, meaning the fleet base for example. The matter is much more serious because the Syrian regime is an obstacle to some wider transformation of the region. If Mr. Assad goes and gives up power, there begins mass restructuring of the region. Merging of Syria and Egypt is the most probable because they had that precedent, they had the experience of being one country – the United Arab Republic, in the times of Nasser.
But now it will be on the ground of Islamism, I mean the Islamic Brotherhood because in Syria and in Egypt one common political party is acting and the most important position in Syria is based upon the ranks of this party that was against the family of Assad since early 80es and has a very big account to show against the Assad’s family. So, if Assad goes, it means that a very high probability exists about merging of Syria and Egypt. And Turkey is also interested in the occurrence of such a vast empire – the new Ba’ath – Sunni Empire.
And we know that now the most important country in the bigger Middle East is Iran which is opposing to the Saudi Arabia but after merging of Syria and Egypt Saudi Arabia goes as a secondary state and probably Israel also, and we have polar opposition between Iran and the united Sunni world which leads to the most devastating war in the region possible. Surely Russia cannot accept this issue and so Mr. Lavrov is obliged to take some measures against such abnormality.
And then you can also imagine that Turkey – the third part of this triangle becomes not the neighbor we are accustomed to but the element of the vast empire, the new high power, and Moscow is also very much afraid of such development of events. So, really it is quite unimaginable that Moscow would accept taking the regime of Mr. Assad off the chessboard.
But strangely enough the West does not seem to be afraid of such scenario.
Well, the West is not a single piece that thinks and acts simultaneously and harmoniously. I must remind you that during the Libyan events the Republican Party supported Mr. Gaddafi, the late Gaddafi, and there is vast diversion between the positions of the Republicans and Democrats.
So, what kind of American policy we are witnessing now in the Near East – it is really mostly the policy of Mr. Obama who made his famous speech in Cairo. And it was not in vain that he had chosen this city to appear in front of the Muslim world because now if we think about that, the elimination of the Assad’s family from the political chessboard in the region makes Egypt the most important state in the Muslim world, the first really because it is a vast, formidable Arab state supported by the new post-Assad Syria and supported by Erdogan’s Turkey.
After that there is the phenomenon of avalanche, so the new states of Mahrib – Tunisia and probably post-monarchic Morocco will also join this empire, and probably Libya also. After that the polarization of the Near East between Iran and the Sunni world will be quite inevitable. And I would also like to remind that in the case of Israel we have a vast stock of nuclear armaments, not only Saudi Arabia will go from the chessboard but Israel also will be shed of this piece.
And what would be the fate of these nuclear armaments possessed by the Israeli army now, after this it will be turned into the greater Palestine. I think probably these nuclear armaments will be under the control of the Palestinian liberation movement, probably Hamas, that will join the general Hamas of Syria and Egypt. And so it will be the nuclear Sunni state supported also by the nuclear Pakistan. And I think that Iran maybe now is just deliberately provoked for obtaining its own nuclear armament so that the opposition between the two poles of the Islamic world will be nuclear on both ends. So, it will be a drastic perspective of the nuclear war on the southern border of Russia.
And that is an awful scenario, really, it is frightening.
Awful scenario but not far from the geopolitical imagination of certain politicians in the West, I’m afraid.